Houston Open Betting Preview & Tips 2018
We stay in Texas for another week with our Houston Open betting preview. Can Henley upset the field again?
Last Week In Review
It was another big payday for Bubba Watson at the WGC Matchplay. He muscled out Kevin Kisner 7&6 on a marathon weekend to pick up his second WGC title which will add nicely to the pair of Masters Trophies on the Watson mantelpiece.
It also happened to be Bubba’s second win this year already. Form that will surely set him up for a real crack at one or more of the majors as well as being a virtual shoe-in for the Ryder Cup later this year.
For Kisner, a long week and a nervy-close battle with Alex Noren in the Semis meant he had little left in the tank for the final. Meanwhile Noren took advantage of Justin Thomas’s failed attempt at reaching the OWGR #1 after his loss to Watson in the other semi and took 3rd place at a relative canter 5&3.
This week’s Houston Open will once again be hosted by the Golf Club of Houston near Humble, northeast of Houston where it has been the traditional pre-cursor to the Masters since 2007.
The course is a Reed Jones layout, a par 72, 7,422 yards long and for a while now there have been plenty of similarities in the set up here to that of Augusta next week. Like Augusta, this course is a Par 72, with four par 5s and four par 3, it’ll have fast greens and there will be a premium on Par 5 scoring, especially with the wide fairways. Short game experts will like it.
The Golf Club of Houston has once managed to disguise itself well as a tough track that plays pretty easy with scores of 20-under, 15-under, 16-under, 15-under and 16-under par winning in the last five years.
Previous Houston Open Winning Odds
There isn’t much of a correlation between winning here and winning in Augusta next week; it hasn’t happened since the tournament’s date moved here in 2007.
- 2017 – (-20) Russell Henley 40/1
- 2016 – (-15) Jim Herman 400/1
- 2015 – (-16) JB Holmes 40/1
- 2014 – (-15) Matt Jones 125/1
- 2013 – (-16) DA Points 25/1
Houston Open Betting Blog
Leading the betting right now is:
Rickie Fowler 10/1
Justin Rose 10/1
Jordan Spieth 11/1
Phil Mickelson 12/1
Henrik Stenson 12/1
While defending champ Russell Henley is at 25/1.
Rickie is without a win so far this season, as is Jordan Spieth, and with birdies and putting being one of the key factors this week, they do both look like strong chances.
However, with the Masters next week and with Spieth still looking to find something, anything, players who have already qualified might well be looking for something that will help them next week rather than concentrating on going for broke this week.
Players further down the list like Jason Dufner at 50/1 and Keegan Bradley at 55/1, both previous winners on tour might be more prudent picks.
The course can play pretty tough to any player not exceptional in windy conditions. The notorious Texas winds will be a factor in determining the winner and it is definitely worth noting both the weather forecast as well as a player’s tee time draw, before betting.
However the dry conditions recently (with some rain projected to soften up the course before play) and the lack of any significant wind might make this course play even easier than usual. There might even be some record scoring on the cards.
Houston Open Betting Tips
HENRIK STENSON 12/1 – Henrik looks to be back in form, as shown in a very strong performance at Bay Hill two weeks ago finish 4th behind a resurgent Rory. Ball striking looks as strong as ever and while I don’t fancy hime for the Masters next week, I do think he has a chance in Houston. Previous form around the Tournament Course reads T3-T21-T2-T54-2-MC so between the lines he’s due another pretty strong performance.
JB HOLMES 70/1 – JB’s odds look surprising for someone who has performed well here on more than one occasion. A winner here in 2015 at 40/1 he’s a player that often defies current form and odds to turn it on when he feels it. His last six results here (2-T48-T8-T12-1-MC) suggest that he certainly knows what it takes to make a challenge and he loves playing in Texas. He’s the only player in the last 10 years to win this event when starting the final round outside the Top 4 – so you can never really discount him. His best result this season so far has come at the breezy Farmers when he posted a T4. At 70/1 the value is there for all to see.
JASON DUFNER 50/1 – For a player who looks like he doesn’t give a f**k, this tournament looks right up the Duf’s street. I fancied him last week at the Matchplay for the very same reason. He’s already qualified for the Masters and we know he can go low when he feels like it as evidenced in his last win at the CareerBuilder in 2016 shooting 25-under. It’ll take something similar this week too I think. He’s only played this event twice since 2008 but found something to his liking with a T12 last year. Dufner isn’t someone who looks like he covets majors, but another win could certainly be on the cards while some of the other bigger boys have one eye elsewhere.
RUSSELL HENLEY 25/1 – Because of his win here 12 months ago and his resulting Top 12 finish at the Masters that Houston win qualified him for, Henley has already booked a spot in the first major of the year. This makes it a ‘free’ week for him. His form at the Golf Club of Houston has been a lot more than humble with three Top 10s coming before his win last year. He looked in good putting form last week in the WGC-Matchplay and with some of the bigger names taking the brunt of the media focus this year, don’t be surprised to see Henley rise to the occasion again.
CareerBuilder Challenge Betting
|Henrik Stenson||12/1||2 pts WIN|
|Russell Henley||25/1||2 pts E/W|
|Jason Dufner||50/1||1 pt E/W|
|JB Holmes||70/1||1 pt E/W|
|2017-2018 Results||+/- +119.3 points|
All odds taken from bet365.com, 1/4 odds 1,2,3,4,5 correct at time of writing.
Total Staked in 2017-18 – £100.00
Total Returns – £219.30