OHL Classic: Betting Preview and Tips
Pat Perez won here last year and is going well again this season. Can our OHL Classic at Mayakoba betting preview pick another winner when the PGA Tour takes a trip to the Mexican Riviera?
After looking at the year that Pat Perez has had, it all started at El Camaleon in Mayakoba just three starts back after a shoulder injury plagued his 2016 season. After winning at odds of 125/1 last year and claiming another win a few weeks ago in the CIMB Classic the in-form 40 year old from California looks slightly less attractive at 14/1 this time around.
El Camaleon in Playa del Carmen, isn’t very long (even by my standards) at just 6,987 yards, par 71. And it isn’t protected by sheer length. The big test here is the (often) dense tropical foliage lining each hole and the scatter-bomb effect of its bunkering.
This ultimately explains (as does the fact it was an alternate event – mirroring the WGC-Matchplay for seven years) the reason why the average age of the winner in its 10 year cycle is upwards of 38.
Previous OHL Classic Winner Odds
Previous winners have come from a long way down the market – which makes it all the more worthwhile taking a punt from somewhere near the bottom doesn’t it?
- 2016 – (-21) Pat Perez 125/1
- 2015 – (-18) Graeme McDowell 35/1
- 2014 – (-17) Charley Hoffman 60/1
- 2013 – (-21) Harris English 28/1
- 2012 – (-13) John Huh 40/1
OHL Classic Betting Blog
Any tournament with the word ‘classic’ in its name is sure not to be. But that doesn’t mean there isn’t a ton of value in the penultimate event of the PGA Tour 2017 schedule.
Players entered in the field this year include 2015 winner Graeme McDowell (40/1) fresh off a strong finish (T10) at the The Shriners last week, as well as other previous winners in Harris English (125/1), Perez (15/1), and Charley Hoffman (28/1).
If you are looking for a way into this event, then players who are experts at hitting fairways and grinding it out must be taken seriously; perfect examples of this include G-Mac, Perez, Mark Wilson and Charley Hoffman – none of whom are particularly long, but all hit their fair share of targets.
Also very interesting is that none of the last six winner have averaged over 300 yards off the tee here either, G-Mac managed to win averaging just 273 yards per drive!
Last week we hinted that the market favourite has each (bar Justin Thomas at the CIMB) managed to cash in a Top 5 place this season on the PGA Tour, but Tony Finau failed to complete that nice run when stuttering badly at TPC Summerlin finishing T16.
This week, leading the betting lists is Rickie Fowler (9/1), followed by Pat Perez 14/1, Patrick Reed (20/1) and Chesson Hadley (22/1).
OHL Classic Betting Tips
Looking at the list of past winners, I’m not heavily backing the kind of outsider bet that has been prevailing frequently during the Fall season.
This week, we’re going for some strong contenders, who have either tasted success here in the past, fit the profile or that we see value in their price.
In short, this course isn’t one for the long hitters which is why I (really) like the chances of 80/1 shot Brian-I-hit-more-fairways-than-anyone-Stuard.
PATRICK REED – 20/1 might not seem like the standard ‘value’ bet. But as we have noted in previous blogs, Reed is clearly going to win again, and looking at this field, here looks as likely as anywhere.
He already has winnings from 5 PGA Tour title in his bank, and looking at the ‘class’ in this field, only Fowler is in front of him. His odds of 33/1 in his last two appearances have come down somewhat, due to the drop in class of the field, but this only makes him look a more likely champion in my view.
So. Any takers on his 20/1 odds? Yes please.
RUSSELL KNOX – Knox isn’t in anything like the kind of form that took him to a pair of Top 3s in the two editions of this event, but he’s still a player who knows how to keep things in play and what it takes to get to the finish line first.
His first two appearances of the season have been a T63 in the CIMB and a T72 at the Shriners. Nothing to get excited about, but the positives of making his first two cuts can’t be underestimated coming into a tournament he clearly likes.
His last five starts in Mayakoba read T30-T31-T37-T2-3 which appears to show he likes what he sees here. Even more revealing is that in 2012 his T30 here was his only made cut in the first seven tour outings in his rookie year. Whether he starts his season strong or poorly, he brings game to El Camaleon.
BRIAN STUARD – Did he disappoint last time out in Vegas? Perhaps, but that wasn’t a course ideally set up for him, and his T57 looked a lot worse than it actually was after a final round 76.
El Camaleon is definitely a course that should suit his strengths. His T4 at the Sanderson Farms and his ability to keep his ball in play (35th Driving Accuracy/32nd GIR) show he has both the game and the form to do well in Mexico.
His last four starts here have produced similar consistency to Russell Knox, but at a bigger price – T2-2-T71-T35.
WHEE KIM – Lost in a playoff last week in a tournament I was tempted to include pick him in. I didn’t and I don’t like making the same mistake two weeks in a row, so he goes straight in this time.
While he bucks the trending winning age here (he’s just 25) he fits perfectly in current form and style of play. Not a long hitter, he’s already racked up two Top 5s this season and tee to green, he’s looking as good as anyone bar Perez.
He’s not yet cracked the Top 50 in two attempt sat the OHL but he’s already a much better looking player this season than either of the last two.
His last four tournaments have seen him rack up some pretty impressive figures T54-T39-4-T2. And just look at those trending figures; on mathematics alone he’s guaranteed to finish 1st this week!
OHL Classic Betting
|Patrick Reed||20/1||2 pts E/W|
|Brian Stuard||80/1||1 pt E/W|
|Whee Kim||40/1||1 pt E/W|
|Russell Knox||50/1||1 pt E/W|
|2017-2018 Results||+/- +105.3 points|
All odds taken from 888sport.com, 1/4 odds 1,2,3,4,5, correct at time of writing.
Another losing week where Tony Finau might still be kicking himself for an opportunity lost. Total profits – +105.3 pts.
Which is ok from a tenner a week eh? It keeps us all honest!