RSM Classic: Betting Preview and Tips
The last official event on the PGA Tour until 2018 is the RSM Classic and our betting preview pits a whole host of hungry players yearning to make Thanksgiving weekend especially bountiful.
Mackenzie Hughes scooped up the win in a five man playoff last year and wasn’t heard of again. The year before it was more predictable with Kevin Kisner staying strong on familiar territory to pick up a long overdue victory.
The thing about this course, like the previous layout at El Camaleon, is that long hitters don’t always prosper.
Sea Island is going to be familiar to many Tour players. For those not wishing to make roots in either Arizona or Florida, this part of Georgia also makes a happy family home for a whole bunch of Tour players.
The Seaside resort course is a par 70, of 7,005 yards which might not frighten players much these days. But, combine it with some fresh Atlantic breeze and it can get tricky.
I say ‘it can’ through clenched teeth, because a quick look at the previous winning scores below, shows it has become somewhat of a shoot out.
The other course used here (for one of the opening rounds) is the Plantation course, a par 72 at only 7,058 yards with nice wide fairways. It should play easier than it actually does and one of the reasons for this is the multiple water hazards that abound.
Bermuda grass is present throughout!
Previous RSM Classic Winner Odds
A pretty straight-hitting bunch of winners I think you’ll agree:
- 2016 – (-21) Mackenzie Hughes 250/1
- 2015 – (-22) Kevin Kisner 25/1
- 2014 – (-14) Robert Streb 80/1
- 2013 – (-21) Chris Kirk 45/1
- 2012 – (-13) Tommy Gainey 200/1
RSM Classic Betting Blog
Any tournament with the word ‘classic’ in its name is sure not to be. I think I’ve said this before!
This event is certainly one which has dropped off my radar in the last few years (probably due to the fact it coincides with my annual Scottish golf weekend!) In fact the last time I watched one was when Tommy Two-Gloves prevailed in 2012!
But with golf few and far between until the start of January, it might be one of the last times we can get our golf betting fix in.
Local-based talent in the field this year include previous winners Kevin Kisner (18/1) and Chris Kirk (70/1) as well as Matt Kuchar 20/1, Zach Johnson (33/1) and Brian Harman (18/1). And let’s not forget about evergreen Davis Love III (200/1) either whose charity (Love Fore Golf) is set to benefit this week.
Perhaps this event isn’t that big of a challenge and the top of the betting market looks familiar with Brian Harman and Kevin Kisner (18/1) sharing top billing.
And it’s easy to see why these two are.
Both are University of Georgia alumni and both hail from Georgia or South Carolina. Their games are similar too; not long but consistent enough to outpace their fellow journeymen pros into second place, winning considerable amounts of cash every season and claiming victory when given the opportunity.
Players that tend to perform well around here all have the same familiar game; a quick look at the previous Top 5s confirms it:
Kevin Kisner, Graeme McDowell, Will Mackenzie, Tim Clarke, Brian Gay, Jim Furyk, Freddie Jacobson, Robert Streb and Scott Brown.
All players not renowned for their length, but who keep it in play and make up for it around the greens with some killer putting.
Even Ken Duke has found things to his liking here!
RSM Classic Betting Tips
If there is any common themes about the RSM Classic winner, most surprising of them is their height; two of the last three were 5’10” and another two of last year’s playoff losers were also that same height?!
2017 – Mackenzie Hughes 6’1”
2016 – Kevin Kisner 5’10”
2015 – Robert Streb 5’10”
A common theme…or just f**king coincidence?
It’s the latter, I know. But how do you explain 3/4 of my picks also being 5’10”?
I know. I know. This is also a tenuous link!
Meanwhile for the third straight week we’re picking Brian-Too-Straight-To -Miss-Stuard, and some other players that look and play just like him.
GRAEME MCDOWELL (5’10”) 60/1 – The only change from last week’s lineup is the addition of G-Mac. Now, while he doesn’t pick up enough wins, he is ideally suited to this course. He’s won on two (dare I say similar layouts) at Hilton Head and Mayakoba and if there is a course for a horse then Sea Island must be it (if the Grand National has taught me anything, it’s never bet against an Irish jockey).
Last week at the OHL his scoring wasn’t as bad as his T34 suggests; he didn’t go over par and combined with the Shriners, he’s now got eight consecutive rounds of 72 or lower.
There’s clearly a great week bubbling somewhere below the surface and after getting married, having a baby and realising he isn’t one of the best in the world anymore, the internal pressure-valve might have released somewhat.
His previous result at Sea Island also suggest the same. He was 3rd in 2016 on his only appearance at this event.
Good memories. Less pressure. Course perfectly set-up for him.
RUSSELL KNOX (5’10”) 66/1 – I was confident that Mayakoba was also perfect for the Scot and if his rather rusty T9 performance is anything to go by I would suggest that a quick return to a course that has glaring similarities with last week might well be reason enough for backing him again.
His odds have actually increased from last week, which is interesting considering that he is one of the better wind payers on tour. If the breezes coming in from the ocean are anything like last week’s then Knox is going to be knocking on the door again.
He’s played here before in 2012 and 2013 finishing T27 and T32 but he’s a much better player these days and he did pop up with T2 at the Heritage in 2016 just up the coast.
BRIAN STUARD (5’10”) 100/1 – Another strong performance in Mayakoba was exactly what we expected when finishing a few shots shy of the Top 5. His T9 was on the back of a T4 at the Sandersons a few weeks earlier and this is another course which suits his particular talents.
With so much danger off the fairways this week it makes sense to pick a player that rarely ventures off them. Our first pick G-Mac has made a career of it and Stuard is becoming a journeyman pro at it too.
What sets Stuard apart from just another journeyman is that tour win tucked in his armoury at another ‘regular’ PGA type tournament just like this. If it wasn’t for his Zurich Classic win in 2016, would he be fancied? Probably not, but his results, combined with his consistent triple figure odds make him a compelling pick.
Previous random results at Sea Island only confirm why he trades so high – T15-MC-T25-MC.
WHEE KIM (5’’11”) 60/1 – OK, so he bucks the trend of our 5’10” picks, but I’m willing to go the extra inch and include him this week.
I also feel unwilling to shift on a player that, for all the nukes in Korea, looks like breaking in to the winning circle very soon. Very. Soon.
He’s 9th in the FedExCup right now and has two Top 5s in his first five starts of the season. In a career that is only 82 events old, he has managed a Top 10 in 10% of them and inside that stat is a pair of 2nd place finishes and a brace of 3rd places too!
He has two previous appearances here, the last coming two years ago when he picked up a T27. So a bit of course form, lots of current form and a bagful of talent. I’m happy to ride him for another week.
RSM Classic Betting
|Whee Kim||60/1||1.5 pts E/W|
|Brian Stuard||100/1||1 pt E/W|
|Graeme McDowell||60/1||1 pt E/W|
|Russell Knox||66/1||1.5 pts E/W|
|2017-2018 Results||+/- +94.3 points|
All odds taken from 888sport.com, 1/4 odds 1,2,3,4,5, correct at time of writing.
Another losing week where Finau might still be kicking himself for an opportunity lost. Total profits +94.3 pts.