Shriners Hospitals For Children Open Betting Preview & Tips
Is there going to be another 100/1 winner at the Shriners Hospitals For Children Open? The last three have, and the value seemingly doesn’t stop there either. Read our betting preview.
Last year Rod Pampling rolled back the clocks with a huge win. It’ll take him comfortably through to the Champions tour in a few years time, but does he have another win in him yet?
TPC Summerlin in Las Vegas, is a par 71 of 7,225 yards and ranked the 8th easiest course on Tour last year. Birdies are guaranteed here, so long as they don’t decide to dry the greens out as they have a few times in recent years.
Previous winners tend to be the ones who hit fairways often and always – not a trait that’s become standard on the PGA Tour where being successful hitting it long and inaccurate aren’t mutually exclusive.
In fact the only thing that’ll stop it becoming another all out birdie assault is a stiff 20mph breeze predicted. But really, even that shouldn’t halt these players.
Expect birdies. Lots.
Previous Shriners Winner Odds
Previous winners have come from a long way down the market – which makes it all the more worthwhile taking a punt from somewhere near the bottom doesn’t it?
- 2016 – (-20) Rod Pampling 250/1
- 2015 – (-16) Smylie Kaufman 250/1
- 2014 – (-20) Ben Martin 225/1
- 2013 – (-24) Webb Simpson 20/1
- 2012 – (-24) Ryan Moore 14/1
Shriners Hospitals for Children Open Betting Blog
So far this year, the favourite in every event – bar the CIMB – has featured in the Top 5. So going with that theory, we’d expect Tony Finau to continue his development and threaten another PGA Tour victory in this limited-talent event.
Favourites living up to their billing so far this year:
Safeway Open – Phil Mickelson (16/1) T3
CIMB Classic – Justin Thomas (4/1) T17
CJ Cup – Justin Thomas (6/1) 1st
WGC-HSBC Champions – Dustin Johnson (17/2) T2
Sanderson Farms – Chesson Hadley (20/1) 2nd
This though, is yet another event where winners arrive with heavily loaded odds. Although you can make a case for it being a horses for courses track too.
Webb Simpson won here in 2013, posted a pair of Top 5s too, and clearly loves the desert because he narrowly lost a playoff at the WM Open in Phoenix to Hideki last year.
There aren’t many players occupying OWGR Top 50 spots in the field, only Kevin Chappell breaking the Top 30, but out of form Bubba Watson and Jimmy Walker make appearances.
In short, this course isn’t one that long hitters will necessarily fare well at, which is why I like the chances of 150/1 shot Brian-I-hit-more-fairways-than-you-Stuard.
Top of the betting market is Tony Finau (16/1), followed by Webb Simpson (22/1) who won here four years ago, then comes Patrick Cantlay (20/1), Chesson Hadley (25/1) and another previous winner here Ryan Moore (25/1).
Shriners Hospitals for Children Open Betting Picks
Defending champion Rod Pampling (250/1) is just as long as he was last year, and probably just as unlikely a winner too.
So, are who are we backing this week?
TONY FINAU – Is proving himself to be a player going from strength to strength. He rarely has an off week as testified in three strong results so far this season. He started off with a runners up in Napa, a T26 in South Korea and a T11 in China. As he moves his way further up the OWGR he becomes more travelled, but still puts in the results that matter. Definitely time for another win.
Last year at the Shriners, he shot 72-65-65-74 and then went on to record nine Top 10 finishes including back to back T7s to finish his season off at the BMW and the Tour Championship.
Finau is justifiably top billed this week, but at 16s, with a field that isn’t scary, he’s probably worth it.
HUNTER MAHAN – We backed Hunter last week at the Sanderson. After three and a half rounds he was actually nudging towards the Top 5, but he fell away badly on the final nine. Now this might just be rustiness after a lengthy period on the nether regions of the tour, or it could be that he’s building up to a big comeback.
His T18 last week followed a T13 at the Safeway. In fact, since the Wyndham last season, his last seven tournaments read T16-T13-T61-MC-MC-T13-T18 which, while not spectacular, does represent some sort of revival in his career. And lest we forget, it is a multiple-tournament-winning career.
I quoted last week that “I’d like to be on him while he’s still at 66/1 rather than wait until his value drops” and this week he’s risen to 100/1. Now’s the time Hunter…
JAMIE LOVEMARK – Hasn’t let up in his schedule since the Safeway Open where he finished T43 and it’s only gotten better for the Californian, as he followed it up with a T32 at the CIMB and a T5 in the CJ Cup. After wisely missing out on the Sanderson, he returns somewhat closer to home in an event he missed the cut in last year (although he did shoot a second round 67).
The year before though was a more promising T13. And it’s this, his current improving form and the fact that the Shriners is notorious for first time winners that pokes Lovemark’s head above the trenches for me this week.
BRIAN STUARD – My chief reason for picking Brian is his T4 last week. I like form players, especially when they haven’t had to travel too far either.
What is interesting is that he finished off last season with seven straight missed cuts. But he’s that kind of player. When he won his first title at the Zurich Classic in 2016, it was sandwiched between four missed cuts, a T55 and a T69. So his current form is a bonus.
But obviously there’s more to Stuard than just a good finish and some attractive odds. The odds are only attractive because of his accurate play tee to green which is essential at Summerlin. He has a short game you wouldn’t really want but when he puts it all together on the greens, he pulls unexpected results out of the bag and it looks more likely than usual this week.
|Tony Finau||16/1||2 pts E/W|
|Jamie Lovemark||33/1||1 pt E/W|
|Hunter Mahan||100/1||1 pt E/W|
|Brian Stuard||150/1||1 pt E/W|
|2017-2018 Results||+/- +115.3 points|
All odds taken from 888sport.com, 1/4 odds 1,2,3,4,5, correct at time of writing.
Last week we lost 20 points despite being in good positions going into the weekend of both tournaments. It still leaves us with an early season +/- profit of +115.3 points.
Which is ok from a tenner a week eh? It keeps us honest!