Valero Texas Open Betting Preview
We separate the steers from the tears where hitting tight fairways is the order of the day in breezy Hill Country. Welcome to the Valero Texas Open betting preview.
Last Week In Review
If you hadn’t heard of Satoshi Kodaira before this then his final round 66 to come from six shots back to win the RBC Heritage was a big neon sign announcing his arrival.
The fact that he breezed past the likes of Ian Poulter, Matt Kuchar, Billy Horschel, Bryson DeChambeau and then Si Woo Kim in the playoff, just proves that in golf betting, you just can’t pick ‘em all.
Luckily, our picks didn’t all do a ‘Matt Kucher’ and take a late dive. Webb Simpson (28/1) managed a share of 5th, while the long shot of backing the defending champion, Wes Bryan looked good for all but the last 64 holes.
So what who looks good in our Valero Texas Open betting preview?
Course Data – TPC San Antonio
TPC San Antonio is a 7,435 yard par 72 and is the home of Kevin Na’s demons who reside in native scrub somewhere right of the 9th fairway.
The course was originally designed by Greg Norman but has had a number of modifications and makeovers since, with no small input from Sergio Garcia too and he makes a welcome return here for the first time since 2010.
For a Hill Country golf course, the Oaks course is a lot flatter than others, but this just makes for a more intimate setting.
It is characterised by narrow fairways and deep bunkering with a smattering of natural vegetation on almost every hole offering up plenty of unplayable lies.
While there is only 100 feet of total elevation change, one of the strategic points featured in Norman’s design is that the downhill holes tend to play into the wind while those going back uphill tend to have the support of the prevailing wind.
Previous Valero Texas Open Winning Odds
Last year’s winner was Kevin Chappell, who won his first title here, while Charley Hoffman predictably prevailed the year before:
- 2017 – (-12) Kevin Chappell 33/1
- 2016 – (-12) Charley Hoffman 28/1
- 2015 – (-11) Jimmy Walker 25/1
- 2014 – (-8) Steven Bowditch 350/1
- 2013 – (-14) Martin Laird 100/1
Valero Texas Open Betting Preview Blog
While those well down the betting list have fared well here in the past – note Steven Bowditch’s 350/1 win in 2014 and Martin Laird at 100/1 in 2013, Ben Curtis 150/1 in 2012 and Brendan Steele’s first win at 300/1 in 2011 – since then, the last three winners have been players who really enjoy this course.
All three of them; Chappell, Hoffman and Walker know the course well, have a vibe for playing here and usually deposit a hefty cheque into the bank on the Monday morning.
Surprisingly, Sergio Garcia is the bookies favourite this year, even more so as he has had a hand in designing this course alongside Greg Norman. But more telling is that despite this, it’s his first appearance here since it opened for play in 2010.
Leading the betting right now:
Sergio Garcia 14/1
Matt Kuchar 18/1
Charley Hoffman 18/1
Luke List 25/1
Ryan Moore 28/1
Adam Scott 30/1
Kevin Chappell 30/1
Valero Texas Open Betting Tips
CHARLEY HOFFMAN 18/1 – Two years ago picking Hoffman in this tournament was like shooting fish in a barrel, but after his T40 when defending last year, I would have thought his odds might have stretched out just a little more this time around.
Sadly not, but he still represents value on a course where he has finished in the reckoning in eight of the last nine years with results of T9-T13-T2-T13-T3-T11-T11-1-T40 have seen him accumulate giant stacks of Texas dollars.
RYAN PALMER 55/1 – Was T6 last year and has a number of sneaky-good results here too with a T4 in 2016, T6 in 2015, T15 in 2015 as well as picking up another Top 10 in 2010.
For many 55/1 might seem a bit tight considering the number of missed cuts he’s had this year, but he was T2 at the Farmers, so form might not be too far away on a course he clearly enjoys returning too.
LUKE LIST 25/1 – List played well in Harbour Town last week on a course where accuracy off the tee and tight iron play was essential. While the leaderboard and the conditions might have felt a little too claustrophobic in South Carolina, I suspect the open feel of TPC San Antonio will suit him much better.
He’s currently on a good run of form on Tour with finishes of 2-T16-T7-T59-T24-T3 which have taken him to 11th on the FedExCup Ranking. His previous two finishes of 10-under in Houston and 11-under at Harbour Town look like winning scores here in Texas, so expect him to be in the money somewhere on Sunday.
BILLY HORSCHEL 35/1 – Has such a good record here that he will undoubtedly be a straightforward choice for many punters this week, especially after coming off a good performance last week at the RBC Heritage (T5). Previous finishes of T3-MC-3-T4-MC would suggest that when playing well, he rallies for all four days.
He also seems to like being in Texas too winning at another TPC course at the Four Seasons in the AT&T Byron Nelson last year. The former FedExCup Champion indicated last week that he was getting away from the technicality of concentrating on too many numbers and getting a more natural feel for the game and it certainly looks like it paid off with his best result of the season so far on Sunday.
Valero Texas Open Betting
|Charley Hoffman||18/1||1.5 pts E/W|
|Luke List||25/1||1.5 pts E/W|
|Billy Horschel||35/1||1 pt E/W|
|Ryan Palmer||55/1||1 pt E/W|
|2017-2018 Results||+/- +98.3 points|
All odds taken from bet365.com, 1/4 odds 1,2,3,4,5 correct at time of writing.
Total Staked in 2017-18 – £130.00
Total Returns – £228.30