PGA Betting Trends: When A Six Shot Lead Isn’t Enough
Justin Rose was a footnote in the WGC-HSBC until the back nine on Sunday. Although he started at 22/1, he traded much higher for most of the week. But the odds were predictably much higher in Jackson!
2017 WGC-HSBC Champions Winner’s Report
Ok, so Justin Rose won his first tournament of the year in Shanghai, but the headline must be, how did Dustin Johnson blow a six shot overnight lead?
Big leads can and do regularly vanish. Anyone backing Martin Kaymer at the 2015 Abu Dhabi Championship can testify to the pain of watching your man capitulate a seemingly unassailable ten shot lead with just thirteen holes to play! At one point during that final round, one bookie was even quoting in-play odds on Kaymer of 1/500!
Unfortunately for any punters, convinced after the second round, that Dustin had this in the bag (only two people had ever coughed up a six shot final round lead on the PGA Tour before*), waking up to find your man not winning, and not having any time to trade out of it either, might make for a bitter-tasting Sunday roast!“I’ve won every year since 2010. I’ve left it late this year but it feels amazing. We all know the position DJ was in and today was the kind of day that the leader probably didn’t want. This is the kind of day where that kind of swing is possible.” – Justin Rose
Rose, eight shots behind at the start of play was still six back on the tenth tee, shot a 67 – which was ten shots better than DJ could manage. The action came late too, after bogeys on eight and nine, a back nine of 31 meant he muscled past Stenson and Koepka too, who combined with DJ to produce an aggregate +1 for the final group back nine!
Recent results hadn’t indicated much of anything for Rose, but when the stars align, collide and car crash like DJ, it’s always nice to be in the right position to take advantage!
2017 WGC-HSBC Betting Odds – Top 5
The usual names filled the top four spots, but the real value came and went in the unenviable tied-5th position:Here’s a look at what you could have won:
1st – [-14] Justin Rose 22/1
T2 – [-12] Dustin Johnson 17/2 (fav)
T2 – [-12] Henrik Stenson 22/1
T2 – [-12] Brooks Koepka 22/1
T5- [-8] Rafa Cabrera-Bello 50/1
T5 – [-8] Peter Uihlein 66/1
T5 – [-8] Kyle Stanley 100/1
starting odds from 888sport.com
Kyle Stanley (100/1) is having a second-wind in his PGA Tour career right now, after winning last season’s Quicken Loans five years after winning his first title he found himself in 2015 holding a spot just shy of #700 in the OWGR. His T5 comes on the back of a T19 in South Korea and a T21 in Malaysia.
It took former US Amateur Champion (and son of Mr Titleist) Peter Uihlein (66/1) a long time to finally establish himself on the PGA Tour after years plying his way around the world on the European Tour, but he finally bagged a win on the Web.com Tour last season which secured his card. So it’s no surprise really to see him make hay as soon as both tours combined in China.
- CAN YOU NAME THE 5 BIGGEST ODDS WINNERS ON THE PGA TOUR IN 2017?
Rafa Cabrero-Bello (50/1) is another one of those players in the Paul Casey mould, who regularly flatters to deceive by appearing on a lot of leaderboards without actually taking home any silverware. He’ll continue to have his backers with odds of 50/1 but even those will lose faith if he fails to convert this season.
For readers of this blog it was an end to three straight winning (sort of) picks, as Patrick Reed blew a strong weekend position by firing a 10-over round of 82 on Saturday.
Sanderson Farms Championship Winner’s Report
Meanwhile in other PGA Tour related news, it was a good day all round for Ryan Armour, the 54 hole leader who maintained his 5 shot led throughout the the final round to win his first PGA Tour title at the 105th time of asking.
It was another triple figure winner as 41 year old Armour (there’s still hope for me) rocked 100/1 odds at the start of the tournament. He finished ahead of second-place Chesson Hadley (20/1) who started favourite, although with the history of this event attracting such under-fancied winners, it’s unlikely many of you would have been on him…
Meanwhile in third place was Jackson local and club member Jonathan Randolph (100/1), whose name came up many times on the fantasy podcasts and preview shows because of that fact. This was advice I obviously didn’t follow, which came back to bite after the final round failings of my two best picks in Hunter Mahan (T19) and Zac Blair (T19).
Of course sharing T4 was unknown Scott Strohmeyer (500/1), a late qualifier, coming through Monday pre-tournament and making his debut on the PGA Tour.Here’s a look at what you could have won:
1st (-19) Ryan Armour 100/1
2nd (-14) Chesson Hadley 20/1 (fav)
3rd (-12) Jonathan Randolph 100/1
T4 (-10) Smylie Kaufman 40/1
T4 (-10) Brian Stuard 200/1
T4 (-10) Scott Strohmeyer 500/1
Keep updated with the web’s only weekly PGA Tour Betting Review and stay bang on betting trend with the best best resource for finding more winning golf bets.
*That’ll be Greg Norman’s famous Masters collapse and Sergio at Quail Hollow in 2005!