Golf Betting Blog: AT&T Byron Nelson Championship
We’re back in Texas for the AT&T Byron Nelson Championship at TPC Las Colinas. With course, form and previous homework completed, we’ve got some excellent value betting tips and picks this week.
Where Are We?
TPC Las Colinas is a Par 70 of 7,166 yards, where fairways are defended by trees and creeks and ponds come in to play often. There are plenty of bunkers and severe run offs around the greens too.
It’s a course where par 4 scoring is very important. There are only two par 5s, both of which are reachable.
I read a great early preview of the AT&T byron Nelson that said:
“Generally, the week after a YUGGGGGE event, where all the world’s top players convene in one place, the following week’s tournament has Matt Kuchar as its top draw.”
Which is a view I’d generally agree on too. But this time we are all in agreement that we are in for a treat:
Among the OWGR Top 20 in the field: Dustin Johnson (#1), Jason Day (#3), Sergio Garcia (#5), Jordan Spieth (#6), Patrick Reed (#15), Charl Schwartzel (#17), Louis Oosthuizen (#18), Brooks Koepka (#19) and Matt Kuchar (#20). Even last weeks top ducks at THE PLAYERS are in the field Si Woo Kim and Ian Poulter (looking to make more hay…)
What’s In The Winner’s Bag?
Playing the Par 4s well is a key trait here, while the Par 5s are relatively gettable, it’s the long, tough par 4s that’ll eventually decide the pecking order, in this chicken fight.
What we’re looking for is a ball striker like Sergio, who’s won here twice (2004, 2016). Other great ball striking winners here have included Sang Moon Bae (2013), Keegan Bradley (2011) Adam Scott (2008) and Jesper Parnevik (2000).
Horses For Courses
It’s fair to say that TPC Las Colinas plays to the talents of Sergio Garcia whose win here last year was his second in the event. Another player looking too improve on a strong showing in his last two visits is Tony Finau (T10-T12).
Other than that we’re looking at OWGR #1 Dustin Johnson whose only been out of the Top 20 once in seven visits (T63-T4-T7-T20-T7-T8-T12).
Betting Picks & Tips – AT&T Byron Nelson Championship 2017
Charley Hoffman – ‘When in Rome’, they say, in much the same way that you should be considering Hoffman in Texas. His Lone Star state stats (say that quickly, after a few beers a few times) are impressive reading, and on a shortish (7,140 yards) course he should be able to navigate his way around as strategically as anyone else. This ain’t his first rodeo, that’s for sure!
Tony Finau – Finau’s two appearance in this tournament have both resulted in Top 12s. So clearly he likes what he sees. For someone so long, he’s also a great ball striker (T7). He’s also scoring well on the Par 4s (7th), is the 9th longest on Tour and is 4th in Greens in Regulation. In many ways he’s like a poor man’s Sergio; only bigger, stronger, younger and with a ton more length!
Byeong Hun An – Here’s a guy who should have won the WM Phoenix Open earlier this season. Then he had another chance in the Wells Fargo a few weeks ago too. If only he had a final round sans-nerves and he’d already be yet another South Korean winner on the PGA Tour. This is his first visit to TPC Las Colinas, which isn’t always such a bad thing in this tournament.
Marc Leishman – I don’t pick Leishman often enough. I admit that. Especially on a course where he has played well in the past. This is one such place, and while recent visits suggest otherwise, they coincided with poor form. Of his last eight visits, he’s missed the cut three times and posted five Top 12s. If he’s hit and miss here then I’ll be backing the hit this time around. He lies 15th in the FedExCup Ranking with four Top 10s and a win at the Arnold Palmer in March. He’s 30th in Par 4 Scoring and 2nd on the Par 3s.
Dustin Johnson (9/2), even with his excellent record here, and on the back of his best ever Players finish, his odds remain short. Jason Day’s odds are increasing, but his form here and in general, isn’t getting any better. I like Jordan Spieth (12/1) too, but again, he’s not ticking my boxes. Matt Kuchar, (40/1) is always a no and Sergio Garcia (14/1) might need to regroup after his Masters victory and await The Open as his next winning opportunity.
Recommended Staking Plan
Charley Hoffman 40/1 (BetFred) [1.5 points EACH WAY]
Tony Finau 40/1 (Bet365) [1.5 points EACH WAY]
Marc Leishman 66/1 (BetFred) [1 point EACH WAY]
Byeong Hun An 70/1 (BetFred) [1 point EACH WAY]
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